Credit: ESA/Hubble & NASA; CC BY 4.0
Credit:: Esposito et al. 2026
Each Jupiter-size planet in the galaxy falls into one of three distinct categories: hot, warm, or cold. A new study suggests that despite the apparent differences between these populations, they may have all formed from the same underlying dynamical process: a game of pool played at planetary scales.
A Diversity of Jupiters
Though our solar system has only one Jupiter-size planet, elsewhere in the galaxy we have found three different species of these massive gas giants. Cold Jupiters closely resemble their namesake and orbit far from their host stars; hot Jupiters are the opposite and are found whipping around their stars on extremely close-in orbits. In between these are the warm Jupiters, which tend to orbit in the intermediate
space between 0.1 and 1.0 au.
Though these three populations are defined by their orbital distances, they differ from each other in other ways as well. For example, hot Jupiters almost never have nearby companions; if there are any other planets circling the same star, they’re usually far-out cold Jupiters. They can also orbit in pretty much any direction, including opposite the direction of their star’s spin, and are usually on perfectly circular orbits. In contrast, warm Jupiters often have friends nearby, are much more aligned with their stars’ spins, and can have modest eccentricities.
Given these differences, it’s often thought that each of these populations arrived at its current location through different dynamical processes and that the history of the warm Jupiters is likely quite different from the history of the hot Jupiters. However, a new study led by Julia Esposito (Georgia Institute of Technology) has proposed an alternative view. Maybe these populations, though they appear different now, were all created by the same process: planet–planet scattering.
Though these three populations are defined by their orbital distances, they differ from each other in other ways as well. For example, hot Jupiters almost never have nearby companions; if there are any other planets circling the same star, they’re usually far-out cold Jupiters. They can also orbit in pretty much any direction, including opposite the direction of their star’s spin, and are usually on perfectly circular orbits. In contrast, warm Jupiters often have friends nearby, are much more aligned with their stars’ spins, and can have modest eccentricities.
Given these differences, it’s often thought that each of these populations arrived at its current location through different dynamical processes and that the history of the warm Jupiters is likely quite different from the history of the hot Jupiters. However, a new study led by Julia Esposito (Georgia Institute of Technology) has proposed an alternative view. Maybe these populations, though they appear different now, were all created by the same process: planet–planet scattering.
Virtual Planetary Billiards
Esposito and collaborators set up 1,500 virtual planetary systems with three massive planets each, then simulated how the orbits evolved before probing the final configurations. In crucial contrast to previous simulation studies, the team initialized their Jupiters across a range of different distances and included the effects of tides sapping energy from orbits of planets that got too close to their host stars.
At the end of the simulation, the team surveyed the digital carnage. Almost every virtual system ended with only two planets after either ejecting one away from the star or having two planets collide. But, remarkably, the remaining two-planet systems looked tantalizingly similar to what we actually observe, with a mix of hot, warm, and cold Jupiters. Even more exciting, the end populations were highly correlated to where the violent scattering event took place.
For example, the warm Jupiters were almost all produced by “warm scattering” simulations, where the scattering took place between 0.1 and 1.0 au. The planets that survived the simulations and ended up as warm Jupiters matched all of the properties of the real warm Jupiter population: they had nearby companions, were moderately eccentric, and were mostly aligned with their stars. The hot Jupiters, meanwhile, were almost all produced by “cold scattering” events where the flybys happened far from the star and resulted in one planet hurtling inwards. These also matched all of the observed properties of real hot Jupiters.
By Ben Cassese At the end of the simulation, the team surveyed the digital carnage. Almost every virtual system ended with only two planets after either ejecting one away from the star or having two planets collide. But, remarkably, the remaining two-planet systems looked tantalizingly similar to what we actually observe, with a mix of hot, warm, and cold Jupiters. Even more exciting, the end populations were highly correlated to where the violent scattering event took place.
For example, the warm Jupiters were almost all produced by “warm scattering” simulations, where the scattering took place between 0.1 and 1.0 au. The planets that survived the simulations and ended up as warm Jupiters matched all of the properties of the real warm Jupiter population: they had nearby companions, were moderately eccentric, and were mostly aligned with their stars. The hot Jupiters, meanwhile, were almost all produced by “cold scattering” events where the flybys happened far from the star and resulted in one planet hurtling inwards. These also matched all of the observed properties of real hot Jupiters.
The researchers concluded that planet–planet scattering can produce both the warm and hot Jupiter populations so long as you let the planets scatter from a variety of different distances. This exciting theoretical insight, if correct, would mean that astronomers could stop searching for different pathways to create each population. Happily, this model also provides testable predictions, and the authors lay out how the theory could be supported or disproven with additional data. Through virtual experiments like these, astronomers continue to build up an understanding of how the wide range of planetary architectures observed across the galaxy came to be.
Citation
“Unified Formation Channel of Hot and Warm Jupiters via Planet–Planet Scattering,” Julia Esposito et al 2026 ApJL 1003 L3. doi:10.3847/2041-8213/ae61b0
